How Many Customers Will TiVo Lose As Comcast Goes MPEG-4?

As cable providers examine technological enhancements to reclaim and more effectively manage their finite network throughput, they’ve dabbled in both MPEG-4 encoding and Switched Digital Video. Whereas SDV manages tuning in a more efficient manner, modernizing from the MPEG-2 format results in fundamentally smaller video. And Comcast, the nation’s largest cable operator, will imminently flip the switch to MPEG-4 in some Georgia and California markets.

For customers running newer cable boxes and DVRs, the transition should be seemless. However, folks on older hardware will need to swap boxes. Those with Comcast gear need merely walk into the store to receive new Xfinity equipment or even arrange it online. But for TiVo owners, the inherent risk in purchasing retail cable hardware manifests

Series3/HD: IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED! These DVRs will lose everything except local HD channels. All other HD cable channels will be incompatible.

TiVo has never disclosed model breakdown, but I’d guess 20-30% of their active DVRs are Series 3 and TiVo HD CableCARD variants. And, thus, if they had an easy fix to provide MPEG-4 compatibility to this generation of hardware they’d surely implement it. Especially given Comcast’s expected nationwide transition, ramping up towards the end of this year. Further, at some point, we fully expect Verizon to follow suit with FiOS – who’s also had a small number of MPEG-4 channels in the mix for a while.

UPDATE: Good news – TiVo retrofit HD units for MPEG-4.

But it’s not all bad news… Those of us on newer TiVo hardware should expect to see an immediate 30% increase in storage capacity. Further, it appears that TiVo owners in dire straights will be able to purchase a new Roamio and add Lifetime for only $100 – vs the typical $400-500. Yeah, it’s still money of out your pocket, but for those comfortable underwriting an upgrade, it’s not an entirely unreasonable deal.

Although I’m left wondering how many will simply choose to move on?

Comcast-MPEG4-Letter

(Thanks for the letter, Kupe!)

45 thoughts on “How Many Customers Will TiVo Lose As Comcast Goes MPEG-4?”

  1. “Further, it appears that TiVo owner in dire straights will be able to purchase a new Roamio and add Lifetime for only $100 – vs the typical $400-500.”

    Good on TiVo.

  2. Upgrade for 100 dollars to a superior machine? That’s a bargain. I’m glad I sold my Tivo HD earlier this year.

  3. Richard, I’ve long since moved on. But TiVo was still selling “HD” hardware as 2010 and maybe into 2011 if memory serves. And one argument in their favor is sort of a buy once approach. But the issue is being forced here and I wonder what percent of folks who find themselves in this situation will be prepared to shell out several hundred more dollars to keep on truckin’ with TiVo?

    (It’s only Lifetime service that’s $100 – new DVR hardware must still be purchased. Also it’s not entirely cut & dried – I imagine there are many households with both S3/HD and Premiere or Roamio. Do they go with one less set-top? Buy a Mini? There’s no question in my mind TiVo’s going to lose subs. It’s just a matter of how many and will it be significant?)

  4. “I have a hard time getting too upset about the obsolescence of a nine year old device”

    Well, to quibble slightly, it’s indeed a nine year old device, but S4 didn’t get released until spring 2010, so they were selling S3’s up until a bit more than five years ago.

    All that said, I accept that TiVo has no technical solution to get the S3 to handle MPEG4, and think the deal they’re offering S3 customers is generous enough to make it indeed hard to get upset about the whole thing.

  5. TiVo’s note (that I linked ahead of the quote), indicates folks should contact Support to work it out. They only list a few markets at this time – so it may not be available to others until Comcast releases a bigger deployment schedule or those upgrades are closer. It sounds like some email outreach has occurred as well.

  6. “And one argument in their favor is sort of a buy once approach.”

    True. But folks who lifetimed a S3 have saved significant dollars over paying a recurring fee, even if they bought in 2010.

    (And I assume the lifetimed pre-CableCARD model customers hit the exact same wall, a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.)

    “But the issue is being forced here and I wonder what percent of folks who find themselves in this situation will be prepared to shell out several hundred more dollars to keep on truckin’ with TiVo?”

    Who knows. But the generosity of the offer should cushion the blow. Plus, the folks who’ve held out on S3 probably did so in no small part because they like the brand’s UX. And finally, and most importantly, assuming these folks are almost all cable-subs, they’re not broke millennials who simply can’t afford a generous deal.

    I’m utterly sure they’ll lose some non-trivial number of customers. But I have serious doubts that blood will flow in the streets…

  7. “I imagine there are many households with both S3/HD and Premiere or Roamio. Do they go with one less set-top? Buy a Mini?”

    If you’ve already got an S5, is really any good reason not to go with a Mini instead of a hard-drive based unit? I mean, I guess you get extra storage space, but that doesn’t seem to justify the cost difference.

    (Honest question, as we’re not MRV customers, so I could easily be missing something…)

    —–

    And damn, I do wish the Akismet plugin had a whitelist. I’m not selling fake designer-brand sunglasses.

  8. 2-tuner Premieres are not compatible with Mini. 4-tuner Premieres and all Roamios are. I have an old Premiere I could add Lifetime to for $99, but I used those funds towards an additional Mini instead – makes more sense as I prefer to unify my recordings and season passes, less energy usage, less CableCARD. But I know some folks prefer their spouses or kids manage their own drive and recordings.

    Regarding blood in the streets, yeah probably not the more I think it thru. I imagine many of these old subs are already off the books the way TiVo amortizes Lifetime over several years. Also, given the end of sales, the end of discount codes, and the incoming Bolt, I wonder if they’ll soon do more (favorable) tinkering on the pricing side as they did with Mini.

  9. It’s interesting you post this now. I live in CO, own an HD, and just purchased an S5. Several days after I paired the S5, the HD started exhibiting characteristics mentioned in the article…I could only receive local HD channels. Comcast thought it was a signal strength issue and supposedly boosted the signal…but no joy. Next step was to get a new cablecard but I havent yet had time to pair it to see if that fixes the issue. Hmm…

    I much prefer Tivo’s guide listing and closed captions to the weak Comcast offerings, so I’d most likely opt to get a new box vis-a-vis a mini.

  10. “I much prefer Tivo’s guide listing and closed captions to the weak Comcast offerings, so I’d most likely opt to get a new box vis-a-vis a mini.”

    Given that you’ve already got a Roamio, what advantage do you see to getting a second Roamio over a Mini?

  11. Would someone with Tivo who has used the interface for as long as up to 9 years be willing to give the experience up for a Comcast DVR? I have been on it since Premiere (now Roamio) and Tivo is the only thing (other than price) that keeps me with Comcast. It would be short sighted to not take advantage of the deal Tivo is offering, but I suspect some will be tempted to go to the X1 platform and pay fees. For others, I suspect the familiar interface will lead them to a Roamio deal.

  12. Hmm, wondering what I would do if given that offer — I have an old TivoHD receiving OTA channels in spare room but have lifetime Premier and Roamio. I would consider looking in to selling the Premier if I could get a new Roamio/6 tuner box with lifetime for reasonable price. Guess I’ll see what happens when Comcast rolls out MPEG4 to Boston area. Then again – they should know my TivoHD is antenna so may not make the offer.

  13. Jerold, I wonder if the cost (versus value) may not be there for some people. Those needing to replace multiple set-tops aren’t looking at small numbers. All I have to go on is TiVo quarterly subscriber count updates and retail numbers have remained largely stagnant. Most don’t care or know about TiVo. This scenario is different and interesting as we’re now talking existing customers – how will they respond, do they have the cash and motivation to carry on. Many will. But what percent won’t?

  14. I actually still have a TiVo HD. To make a long story short, don’t want to invest in new hardware if we’re going to move soon, which has been the case for years.

    This is the thing that would push me to finally have to invest in something, and it likely wouldn’t be TiVo. The real question will be, is the deal good enough to get me to keep paying that $13 a month (or whatever it is now)? I’m guessing no, this could be a real problem for them.

  15. Not sure if this will effect me or not. If it does I know I will just go to over the air combined with an Apple TV and drop Comcast.

  16. Unless the Comcast X1 DVR and HD DVR suddenly become FREE rentals boxes I think any TiVo user would just pay $49.99 for a TiVo-renewed Roamio & $99 LIFETIME offer.

    $150 to upgrade from an obsolete 2-tuner/20hr HS3 HD to a Roamio 4-tuner/75hr STB running Netflix/Vudu/Amazon/Hulu/YouTube with NO FEES is an offer few people would pass up..

  17. It’s a little bit of a jump to assume TiVo will let you get promotional Lifetime pricing on discounted refurb hardware. On the other hand, I’d think they’d be motivated to work with folks. And I do think it’s possible pricing will be changing again shortly with the introduction of Bolt… along with surplus Roamio hardware looking for a home. Although, even at $150/pop, getting multiple TVs outfitted with Roamio/Bolt+Mini will add up and not everyone will be interested or flush enough to migrate. Will be interesting to see what comes out of these CableCARD replacement meetings/negotiations. Landscape could be very different in 2016.

    By the by, the bolded and red text above was done by TiVo.

  18. “Jerold, I wonder if the cost (versus value) may not be there for some people. Those needing to replace multiple set-tops aren’t looking at small numbers.”

    But, of course, TiVo has always lost on cost, and won on value. And the universe of folks we’re talking about are the few who’ve already come to that conclusion.

    OTA is different, (though those folks seem like they can keep their S3’s, no?), but if you’re spending the $600 – $1400 / yr for a cable sub, the TiVo equation weighs heavily toward value over cost.

    And I gotta think the Mini has made the whole thing even more viable for MRV.

    —–

    “Will be interesting to see what comes out of these CableCARD replacement meetings/negotiations. Landscape could be very different in 2016.”

    Yeah, at some point in the foreseeable future, S4, S5.1, and S5.2 will all suffer the fate that S3 is going through now.

    But I think 2016 is either somewhat or very early for forced obsolescence. The FCC is a friend to TiVo and current standards, and I think they’ll mandate a rather slow sunset.

    In short, I wouldn’t hesitate to suggest someone invest in CableCARD tech today as a value proposition.

  19. Chucky, I didn’t reference that in terms of TiVo losing capabilities. But in terms of others like Microsoft, Samsung, Sony perhaps gaining capabilities in being able to simply implement some sort of software-only (or -mostly) authentication and security that allows them to serve up cable TV. It’s ironic the entrenched video providers are fighting so hard against this and insisting on their walled gardens and questionable experience/interface. Yet by losing this particular battle, their businesses may be in better shape.

  20. “But in terms of others like Microsoft, Samsung, Sony perhaps gaining capabilities in being able to simply implement some sort of software-only (or -mostly) authentication and security that allows them to serve up cable TV. It’s ironic they’re fighting so hard against this and insisting on their walled gardens and questionable experience/interface. Yet by losing this particular battle, their businesses may be in better shape.”

    (all my bolding to indicate my confusion.)

    Genuinely can’t parse. If you get a moment, can you briefly simplify for the ignorant, as I’m quite interested in what you’re saying here. Have been following the post-CableCARD battle only vaguely, but unclear on all the important details.

  21. The FCC pulled together a working group of both the multichannel video providers and consumer electronics manufacturers to agree on something that could ultimately and effectively replace CableCARD. They’re gathering about once a month and it’s been highly contentious as the MSOs are once again trying to force their “experience” down to retail hardware (as we saw with the failed tru2way initiative several years ago). And there’s been been some confusing matters of technology with matters of policy – along with guidance from the FCC to not resurrect AllVid. I don’t know all the details, but it seems pretty messy.

    Here’s a recent update from Mari, with a priceless and possibly representative carbo loaded quote:
    http://www.lightreading.com/video/video-services/desperately-seeking-a-cablecard-replacement-/d/d-id/716903

    Amazon’s Chaboud suggested that the inclusion of a headline ticker as part of the description of an engineering use-case for something as basic as the TV tuning function was ridiculous, calling it “way off the path” from what the group should be examining. Adding a little more color to the argument, Chaboud said the group might as well put “bake a potato” on the list.*

    And here’s the latest from yesterday’s meeting:
    http://www.lightreading.com/video/video-services/dstac-still-seeking-common-ground-/d/d-id/717448

  22. Thank you for the background, Dave. Genuinely do appreciate it. Time to do my research. Been avoiding it, but I guess we’re getting far enough into the game that it’s becoming worth my while to catch up a bit.

    But from a narrowly TiVo-centric POV, the longer the ugly gridlock continues, the better off for the longevity of legacy CableCARD, no? (Even though I think that if things were solved tomorrow, CableCARD would still get a very slow sunset.)

    —–

    “along with guidance from the FCC to not resurrect AllVid”

    Who knew the dingo would end up being all our best friends? Thanks, Obama.

  23. “One reason for the delays was that discussions with content partners didn’t go as planned. Samsung wanted to directly integrate content into its guide, taking away the need to switch from app to app to watch videos from different sources. But many services are notoriously protective of their app experience, and unwilling to let anyone else in the driver’s seat.”

    Behold the unbearably bright, almost blinding beauty of TiVo OnePass.

    No one else can have it! It’s a permanent TiVo exclusive!

  24. Tivo has an uphill battle. Try encouraging a friend or co-worker to look into TiVo. I haven’t been successful in referring a single sub to TiVo. They either cut the cord (ideal for Roamio OTA) or feel content with the cabletown DVR and lease fees. Both Comcast and Tivo could be lose subs.

  25. “Try encouraging a friend or co-worker to look into TiVo. I haven’t been successful in referring a single sub to TiVo.”

    I’ve evangelized three converts IRL. All remain ecstatically happy I’ve brought them into the One True Church.

    (My secret is that when they’re over here socially, and they take my initial bait, we play Show ‘n’ Tell. From that point on, they can’t resist.)

  26. Dave, in regards to the FCC working group info (http://www.lightreading.com/video/video-services/dstac-still-seeking-common-ground-/d/d-id/717448), any idea what are the consequences in not meeting the Sept 4 deadline? It sounds like Comcast and others want to make 3rd party devices use their crappy interfaces which are crap which isn’t very useful. Why would someone buy a TiVo when stuck with crap (rhetorical question, of course)? I mean X1 is infinitely better than their old moto boxes interface but still barely as user friendly and powerful as my S2 Tivo.

  27. Chucky, I think retail CableCARD is safe for awhile. If MSOs pull support before a transition plan and date are agreed upon, it’d lead to more FCC in their business and/or lawsuits, etc. Having said that, TiVo has misplaced faith in their relationship with Comcast. Comcast is friendly only so long as it serves them… and TiVo’s tent pole time warp patent expires in 2018.

    Michael, I imagine this could drag on for a long, long while. If MSOs get their way and can force their UI upon others, folks like TiVo could still add value in other ways. But, yeah, we could be looking at an RVU equivalent at that point – which is nice in terms of getting out of cable hardware, but it’s not really empowering to folks like TiVo.

  28. “Chucky, I think retail CableCARD is safe for awhile. If MSOs pull support before a transition plan and date are agreed upon, it’d lead to more FCC in their business and/or lawsuits, etc.”

    Yeah. The medium-term safety of CableCARD service is my essential point here. And I think the underpinning will be more than just ‘FCC in their business and/or lawsuits’. I think the FCC will simply mandate a rather slow sunset to service.

    “Having said that, TiVo has misplaced faith in their relationship with Comcast. Comcast is friendly only so long as it serves them”

    Well, I don’t know about the ‘misplaced faith’. That assumes both parties weren’t fully aware that it was a Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact serving the short-term interests of two long-term enemies.

    But in the short-term marriage of convenience, TiVo got Comcast VOD, and Comcast got (dud) ammunition to fuel their (foiled) takeover of Time-Warner Cable.

  29. “If MSOs get their way and can force their UI upon others…”

    But isn’t the whole “guidance from the FCC to not resurrect AllVid” a strong sign that’s not where we’re headed?

  30. Regretfully the Tivo HD was the last hackable Tivo. The upgrade cost is not really the issue to me, its the loss of control.

  31. “For reference on “real” TiVo hacking…”

    Yeah. Anything that requires starting out on a long and winding process with a soldering iron is no longer in the remote vicinity of ‘weekend hacker’ territory…

    (Ah, I long for the late ’90’s days when I bought a nice South Korean DVD player with a ZIF EEPROM chip that could easily be re-programmed to make the player region-free and Macrovision-free.)

  32. I’ve had an original S3 with Comcast service since 2006 and have been reluctant to upgrade, since it’s basic DVR services are OK with me. But TiVo really want me to upgrade, as I just got this email offer yesterday:

    Hello,

    It’s me, your TiVo(R) DVR.

    I’m writing this letter with a heavy heart, but I’m doing it for the both of us. I think you’re perfect in every way, but I feel like I’m no longer the one for you.

    It’s been many years since we first connected and, let’s face it, we just don’t communicate like we used to. Look, it’s nothing you did wrong; I’ll take all the blame. I looked in the mirror the other day and realized that, even if you knocked the dust off my back, it wouldn’t change the fact that I’m just so damn old. I know I’m only slowing you down.

    Of course, I’d like to always be here for you, but I think my cousin Roamio would be a better match. TiVo Roamio can serve you in ways I can only dream of. You deserve the best, and if you call TiVo now you two can get together. I know you’ll hit it off.

    http://click.email.tivo.com/?qs=50928d73839bb7ed27d4c309a0faed57f3fa32a8b6ed2c00d1acec1cbd2d8999764fce80b576a316

    The cool thing is, I’ve already told my friends in TiVo Customer Service about you and they’re ready to hook you up with Roamio right now! Call them at 877-289-8486 and receive an exclusive offer(1):

    – Save $300 on Roamio w/service for a $399.98 one-time payment
    – Save $400 on Roamio Plus w/service for a $499.98 one-time payment
    – Save $400 on Roamio Pro w/service for a $699.98 one-time payment
    Sincerely,

    Your TiVo DVR

    http://click.email.tivo.com/?qs=50928d73839bb7ed5d408ff9207138acfd87e8f4d6414ed2a2f374ba6ed6d699b05385f440c79811

    P.S. You’re making the right decision. Enjoy this limited time offer ending August 19, 2015.

    P.P.S. My friends in TiVo Customer Service are waiting for your call at 877-289-8486. They are available 7am – 7pm PT on weekdays, and 8am – 6pm PT on weekends. This offer is Exclusive to the Call Center ONLY and NOT available online.

  33. That might be the best marketing email TiVo ever penned. It’s a good deal for folks in the market (even with Bolt maybe a few weeks away), but hundreds unexpectedly out of pocket and/or for multiple rooms won’t be for everyone.

  34. I have not received the email from Comcast, but I did get the “breakup” offer email. Very tempting, although I _really_ hate to upgrade with a new model about to come out. I wonder if this means the Bolt won’t be announced until this offer expires.

  35. I have a TiVoHD, but I’m probably OK, if I understand things.

    We only subscribe to limited basic for the Locals in HD and thus we should be ok. Yeah, we may lose the ancillary channels like meTV and all that stuff, but that’s not too important to us.

    I would consider the upgrade to a Roamio but the WAF is a little low for something like that now. Box + LT + likely HD Upgrade adds up.

    But again, unless something is totally different than how I understand it, we should be fine for the locals (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CW, etc….)

  36. Ok Dave and others, question….

    The TiVo website says the base Roamio (not the OTA) is “up to 500 hours” but it is a 500gb drive. Does it store/write more efficiently? I have a 2TB drive in my TiVoHD (going strong and no caps issue) and it’s less hours.

    I still don’t think I would move on to a Roamio as my HD is chugging along fine and we only sub to the limited basic.

    But if the Roamio does in fact store/write more efficiently, then the upgrade equation is not as bad as I thought. $199 for the box plus $99 LT. But I wonder if they would allow me to just transfer the LT from my TiVoHD?

  37. Jeff, according to the support note, you’ll continue to receive the locals (in HD). Regarding storage, if there is a difference in efficiency, it probably isn’t much. For marketing purposes, they probably go with SD recording hours vs HD. I’d advise you stay put unless you like the idea of streaming, Minis, and Amazon streaming. And, no, they don’t do Lifetime transfers. Not yet anyway – could change if the level of abandonment is high. Although $100 is a real deal.

  38. Ok, I am vocal today….sorry

    And I would want to transfer service (to keep just one cablecard on my account)….another reason to thus just stay put is to avoid having to move my CC and risk problems getting it (re)activated in the new box. Locals work. Locals will still work if my market transitions. No caps issue (based on opening the box a few months ago). HD looks to be functioning just fine.

    Why change if its all working?

  39. Thanks for the note Dave.

    I probably will stay put. I’ve gotten very proficient in all things TiVoHD and changing out hard drives, etc. And we will likely ALWAYS be a one TiVo household, especially with my daughter heading to college in a year. And I get my Amazon streaming ok with the app pushing to my Apple TV.

    I guess the only equation for me to change, thus, might be if I want to sell the TiVoHD with 2TB drive with LT. If I added a roamio, I do that, with the LT deal. Then once that is all up and running I could sell the TiVoHD

    Of course, that would still involve moving the cable card or getting another one and I just know I’d rather not do that right now.

    Dave, as always, thanks for what you do and your sage advice!

    We stay put for now (which is the more wife approved path anyways…. ;) )

  40. Sounds great that so many TiVo customer’s are able to upgrade their TiVo and Lifetime membership for only $100… Sounds like a good deal…However, spend two days on the phone with TiVo Customer Service and was told after buying a new upgraded compatible TiVo that I will have to pay another $400.00 to continue my lifetime membership service… My wife bought TiVo for me only five (5) years ago…

    TiVo Customer Service told us no exceptions… When you upgrade to a new TiVo… Not by chose you have to again purchase another $400.00 lifetime service…. Hmm… Never thought 5 years was a lifetime! Well looks like Comcast will have a new rental customer…

  41. After numerous calls trying to determine which stations will remain MPEG 2 I finally reached out for help to the board that oversees licensing in my area. Comcast’s finally had someone get back to me. Their answer….we won’t tell you. Figure it out for yourself after we make the switch.

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