Starz is pulling its content from Netflix in early 2012, and the ripples are being felt throughout the entire video distribution ecosystem. Can Netflix recover? How expensive will content licensing get? What does this mean for over-the-top video as a whole?
With potentially 300 million dollars on the table in a Netflix/Starz renewal deal, it is reasonable to assume that the decision from Starz to pull out of the relationship has to do with more than just direct revenue. I’ve heard from one source that Starz wants to go it alone and follow an HBO Go model. It’s already made its bed with the cable companies, and, like HBO, it sees that it can drive viewership and continuing revenue through that established model. It can’t, however, provide its content through a cheap Netflix subscription to consumers and continue to expect people to see more value in a cable package that costs a lot more. In other words, by licensing content to Netflix, Starz undermines its more lucrative partnership with the cable companies.
So the Netflix/Starz break-up is about more than just money. Or rather, it’s about more than just a one-time licensing deal. It’s about programmers deciding that the OTT free lunch program is over. You know all the concern and hype about cord cutting? I wouldn’t be so worried for the cable companies. The content folks know where their bread is buttered.