TiVo held their quarterly call yesterday. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much in the way of technological specifics suited for a gadget blog such as ours. From where we’re sitting, it seems TiVo’s current focus is expanding their DVR business through MSO partnerships (Virgin, DirecTV, RCN, etc) and continued patent litigation. Interestingly, their R&D and legal budgets will be increasining in lockstep… with no mention of expanded marketing or advertising. From Seeking Alpha’s transcript:
we’re expecting our total legal spend to more than double from the approximately $23 million we spent in the last fiscal year.
R&D spend to increase by $25 million to $30 million compared to the prior year
As I posted elsewhere, the current US pay TV market is hostile to independent players like TiVo. And why they’re no longer independent. One can hope something like AllVid materializes and changes the dynamics. Until then, retail TiVo DVRs will remain a niche product. But one they hopefully continue to develop.
I was hoping we’d hear more regarding TiVo’s non-DVR initiatives, like the Internet-connected Best Buy TiVo TV announced about a year ago. Maybe on the next call?
And what’s up with Comcast? Seems like there’s no momentum there. Perhaps they’re just continuing to fund TiVo R&D to avoid getting sued for patent infringement like AT&T and Verizon.
In looking at the numbers, it seems TiVo added 160,000 retail TiVo subscriptions last year… and most would be new Premiere hardware.
“In looking at the numbers, it seems TiVo added 160,000 retail TiVo subscriptions last year… and most would be new Premiere hardware.”
Woo-hoo! Growth!
“Until then, retail TiVo DVRs will remain a niche product.”
Apple’s Macs are niche products. BMW’s are niche products.
There ain’t nothing wrong with being in the niche products business. As long as TiVo keeps making the least worst DVR’s in the world, and as long as the FCC’s got their back on making CableCARD work, they should be fine.
Now, if we can just convince them to open up API’s for things like remote functionality so a thousand 3rd party developers can help their platform, we’re in a world of good.
Just a note. I’ve been to the HQ a couple times in the past six months. TONS of people, people I’ve met who work there say they are “running out of space”, “cramped” etc. Seems that something is up, either SW dev, or salesdev or HW/R&D dev, something is going on.
Chucky, Overall, no growth. There were about 200k subscription losses to counter the 160k adds. But I found the rough estimate of units moved interesting.
In my mind, there’s a significant difference between being a small player in a large market (Apple, BMW) versus being the only player in what’s proven to be a niche market. And TiVo’s investors are probably expecting more. Yeah, Macs are in the minority but what’s Apple’s market cap? They’re a titan. And profitable, quarter after quarter.
tivoboy, TiVo’s made arrangements with the owners of their office park to significantly expand their footprint there. Maybe related, I assume a decent percent of the engineering staff is funded by TiVo’s partners (like the aforementioned Comcast).
I agree with Chucky about a niche being a fine place to be, if you’re a luxury item like a high-end Mac or a BMW. I’d love to think of my Premiere that way, but its hard to do so, with its half-SD/half-HD interface and its frequent green-ring-of-death. BMW wouldn’t be a luxury good if half the axles came off the production line snapped in half.
160,000 new owners are finding just that.
“I’d love to think of my Premiere (as a luxury item), but its hard to do so, with its half-SD/half-HD interface”
Just turn off the HDUI. It’s still not ready for prime time. Someday, perhaps it will.
If you’re looking for functionality as opposed to eye candy, the TiVo’s old SDUI is still the least worst DVR solution on the planet.
“Chucky, Overall, no growth. There were about 200k subscription losses to counter the 160k adds.”
Woo-hoo! The bleeding slows! The wound stabilizes!
“In my mind, there’s a significant difference between being a small player in a large market (Apple, BMW) versus being the only player in what’s proven to be a niche market.”
Well, let’s look forward. Let’s assume the FCC was serious in seeking to gather complaints in order to kill tuning adapters and mandate a secure IP backchannel to make CableCARD work as the law intended.
And let’s assume that TiVo is hard at work at a refinement of the new UI that actually works well.
So, perhaps in 6 months or a year, TiVo will be in a position where they have a retail product/service that they can broadly market. Then that business niche may start to look a lot more attractive than it does now…
I was one of the 160,000 new subs last year, and I will be one of their losses this year–sooo underwhelmed!
Dave any mention of Hulu on TiVo? It was announced back on 9/28/10, promised in “the coming months”…though if “coming months” meant 16 months (or more) that would mean 2012, so it may not be part of their ’11 plans
~sno-man
“In my mind, there’s a significant difference between being a small player in a large market (Apple, BMW) versus being the only player in what’s proven to be a niche market.”
Or, I’ll make an analogy to a specific case.
Apple in 1997 was the only real player in what had proven to be a niche market – aka non-Wintel PC’s. BeOS was to the Apple of 1997 as WMC is to TiVo.
So, what did the Apple of 1997 do? They rode the installed base, upgraded their UI, and grabbed help from the open-source community. Even if the iPod and iOS product lines had never come about, the Mac line would be a success story today.
That’s pretty much what I think TiVo should do with the retail business. They’re already in the process of upgrading the UI. And I think they should grab help from the open-source community by publishing as many of their API’s as is sanely possible. It’s a platform.
And just as the Apple of 1997 had a legal boost through Microsoft’s desire to keep the DOJ off its back, TiVo has a legal boost both through its patent trollery, and through the FCC’s activity.
Re: Niche product
Do you guys really see TiVo as a premier product at this point? Maybe (and I think even then it’d have been a stretch) 10 years ago. I have a hard time thinking of it as the BMW or Mac of the TV world.
Moxi – They seemed (if they’re still around – not really sure) to have made a premier product. It looked nice/slick.
TiVo? They’re the Saturn (car) of the DVR world. OK and reliable but nothing you’d brag to your friends about. Yes, they put a fancier radio into the dash with the TiVo Premier. It still seems like a Saturn to me.
“Moxi – They seemed (if they’re still around – not really sure) to have made a premier product. It looked nice/slick.”
See, that’s the thing. For your lean-back experience, you just care about functionality. And the Moxi seemed like a North Korean car in terms of that.
TiVo makes a “premiere product” only because the Cableco’s have weird incentives that run against producing good DVR functionality for the user, and because WMC for you primary TV is still a bit like Linux on the desktop.
So the bar is set low. But for my money, TiVo still makes the least worst DVR’s on the planet, (at least on a FIOS wire), which thus indeed makes them premier products.
I would love to know what TiVo is doing with their R&D dollars given they haven’t even finished HD UI and haven’t enabled second core on Premieres.
I only use my Premiere for television content, so it hasn’t been horrible, but Amazon content is still as archaic as on Series 2. Haven’t used Netflix, but it’s not great from what I hear.
“I only use my Premiere for television content, so it hasn’t been horrible, but Amazon content is still as archaic as on Series 2. “
I genuinely don’t follow.
Amazon is actually the one “over the top” service TiVo currently does really, really well. No other “over the top” platform that I’m aware of delivers download on request 1080 true-HD content like Amazon on TiVo.
I wonder how much of a distraction all the legal issues are to the senior management? I wonder how concerned the senior management is about DVR functionality?
At this stage I’ve got two Series 3 HD DVRs with lifetime service. As I start to use them for some of the newer services (such as Pandora), I cringe at the poor integration within the UI. I also think they need to keep up with the “mind share” of some of the newer Internet streaming devices such as Roku or Apple TV.
Between the twin pains of dealing with CableCARD and/or SDV, and the UI / new services issues, I think many people (myself included) see TiVo slipping further and further behind the competition. They are still top of my list, but if and when my Series 3 units start to falter, they’d better have a more compelling replacement than they have today.
BradB, Retail Moxi could be dead. Haven’t heard anything in over a year and their Internet-delivered VOD service never launched. No CES outreach as far as I know.
Chucky, Zune HD on Xbox and the original Vudu devices are comparable to Amazon. Of course, those are on second inputs. But I think you’re selling some of he DVR competition short. No, you can’t offload content and create a massive, distributed media library as you have. But there’s decent and ‘good enough’ DVR experiences out there without the retail and conceptual barriers to entry.
I have a DirectTV with lifetime TIVO but I am considering forgoing it and going with the Surewest version of the AT&T U-Verse Motorola box. I am tired of waiting the the BMW of DVR’s to upgrade the 318i version of DVR’s. I have been with DirectTV since 2001.
Anyone see a reason for to wait for DirecTV and/or TIVO to pull their head out of their nether region and produce a viable replacement?
“But there’s decent and ‘good enough’ DVR experiences out there without the retail and conceptual barriers to entry.”
Of course. That’s why retail TiVo has such a small footprint.
But let’s assume the FCC is serious about dealing with install issues and the tuning adapter issue. If they do so, then the consumer barriers to entry fall away.
And then, assuming TiVo gets their new UI done, they will have a retail product they can actually market to consumers on a level playing field.
Wintel boxes were ‘good enough’ in 1997 without having the Mac incompatibility barriers to entry, yet the Mac ended up thriving by redoing their UI and grabbing help from the open-source community…
“No, you can’t offload content and create a massive, distributed media library as you have.”
The funny thing is that I didn’t even realize that was even a possibility until the day my TiVo got first powered on. I switched to TiVo the same day I got FIOS installed, and the the kind and wise bkdtv over at TiVoCommunity forums let me know what a special unexpected bonus I’d gotten. You can even read my real-time astonishment at hearing the news…
@ Chucky – I left out the word “interface”. Amazon’s interface on TiVo is still the same as it was on Series2. When I missed an episode of a cable show, I had to track it down on Amazon via a browser. I also don’t understand why I can’t access my Amazon library (e.g. shows I bought or free rentals Amazon gives with purchase of certain disks) from TiVo.
Chucky wrote: “Just turn off the HDUI. It’s still not ready for prime time. Someday, perhaps it will.”
Me:
I tried going back to the SD interface after my wife and 9-year old rebelled against the sluggish HD interface and told me we had to go back. I went back for 3 days and loved what finally felt like a faster Tivo than my previous Tivo HD.
But it didn’t last. When using SD menus, my Tivo Premiere every so often refuses to acknowledge the remote. Never had it with my S3. I used 2 other remotes. Not remote specific. And it ONLY happens in SD.
It can take 10 mins before I am able to access the Tivo screens again, although recordings continue and if I am in LiveTV, I can even watch something…just not do ANYthing else for at least 10 mins. I found a whole group of people with the exact same issue, who report that the problem appears to span even multiple Tivo Premieres replacements. Replacing the unit doesn’t appear to help. But going back to HD menus does.
So reluctantly I am back to the HD menus. They are unclean/unfinished and sluggish. But my remote doesn’t lock me out for 10 mins at a stretch.
Tivo: Heal thyself!
Tivo community remote freeze issue with SD menus on the Premiere:
http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=456559
My prediction – Tivo will not exist within a year, at least as a standalone company. They’ll get bought by someone.
Boxee? Google? Roku?
Mix Google patents & DVR experience with someone who knows Internet TV and can still do innovation – it would be interesting!
“Tivo community remote freeze issue with SD menus on the Premiere.”
Yup. Just noticed your post about that in Dave’s newer TiVo thread. Guess I’ll hold off on upgrading to a Premiere for a bit…